Run Forecasts And Harvest Projections For 2023 Alaska Salmon Fisheries And Review Of The 2022 Season Published

Author: KSRM News Desk |

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game has announced publication of the annual statewide salmon run forecast and commercial harvest projection report titled: Run Forecasts and Harvest Projections for 2023 Alaska Salmon Fisheries and Review of the 2022 Season.

 

The Alaska all-species salmon harvest for 2022 totaled over 163.2 million fish. Almost half of this harvest was composed of sockeye salmon (75.5 million fish), followed by pink salmon (69.5 million fish). Most of the 2022 pink salmon harvest occurred in the Central and Westward regions; Bristol Bay continued to be the largest sockeye salmon producing region in Alaska.

 

The 2023 commercial salmon harvest forecast is for 122 million pink salmon, 48 million sockeye salmon, 16 million chum salmon, and 3 million coho salmon. If realized, the forecasted 2023 total Alaska commercial salmon harvest will be approximately 189 million fish.

 

 

LOWER COOK INLET AREA
The 2022 Lower Cook Inlet (LCI) Area commercial salmon harvest was 713,000 fish. Harvest was composed of approximately 300 Chinook, 256,000 sockeye, 1,000 coho, 403,000 pink, and 52,000 chum salmon. Approximately 518,000 fish (73%) were harvested in the commercial fishery, and 195,000 fish (27%) were harvested through hatchery cost recovery.

Chinook Salmon
Harvest Summary: The 2022 combined CCPF and hatchery cost-recovery harvest was 286 Chinook salmon, which was below the 10-year average harvest of 535 fish. The set gillnet harvest for the Southern District (including homepack) was 189 fish, which was less than the 10-year average harvest of 373 fish. An additional 97 Chinook salmon were harvested by purse seine gear in the Southern and Outer districts.

Sockeye Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: Cook Inlet Aquaculture Association (CIAA) forecasted a run of 30,300 sockeye salmon to the Kirschner Lake remote release site. CIAA also forecasted a total run of 78,100 sockeye salmon to Resurrection Bay facilities with all but 6,500 of these fish anticipated to be used for broodstock or cost-recovery purposes. An additional 114,800 fish were forecast to return to Kachemak Bay release sites with 35,500 of these fish anticipated to be used for cost recovery or brood harvest.

Sockeye salmon escapement in the Kamishak District was above the SEG range for Chenik Lake, within the range for the Amakdedori River, and below the SEG range at Mikfik Lake. Sockeye salmon escapements to both Delight and Desire Lakes in the Outer District were above their respective SEG ranges for those systems.

Escapement of 12,760 sockeye salmon through the weir at Bear Creek was within the desired inriver passage goal range of 5,620–13,220 fish. This goal is the combination of the SEG range (700–8,300 fish) and the estimated 4,920 fish required for broodstock for the CIAA Resurrection Bay sockeye salmon program at the Trail Lakes Hatchery. CIAA harvested fewer broodstock than anticipated (2,798 fish), allowing 9,962 sockeye salmon to remain in the lake and spawn naturally. This is above the SEG range of 700–8,300 fish for this system. The only other index stock in the Eastern District is Aialik Lake, where the final escapement of 2,863 fish was below the SEG range of 3,200–5,400 fish.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 CCPF purse seine harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 82,124 sockeye salmon, which was higher than the 10-year average harvest of 46,783 fish. The set gillnet harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 26,855 fish, which was above the previous 10-year average harvest of 24,348 fish.

The Kamishak Bay District CCPF sockeye salmon harvest was confidential due to fewer than 3 permit holders reporting deliveries. The 10-year average harvest is 43,049 fish.

The Outer District harvest was 16,442 sockeye salmon, which was above the 10-year average harvest of 4,268 fish.

Due to small runs during the previous 10 years, no wild sockeye salmon were forecast to be available for commercial harvest from the Eastern District in 2022. Portions of Resurrection Bay were open for commercial harvest from June 22 through July 15. Due to the small number of 13 participants during these commercial fishing periods, State of Alaska confidentiality requirements prohibit release of the harvest information.

Coho Salmon
Harvest Summary: The 2022 purse seine harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 184 coho salmon, which is above the 10-year average harvest of 1,394 fish. The set gillnet harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 774 fish, which is less than the 10-year average harvest of 2,658 fish.

The Kamishak Bay District CCPF coho salmon harvest was confidential. The 10-year average harvest is 1,319 fish.

The Outer District harvest was 41 coho salmon, which was lower than the 10-year average harvest of 390 fish. Pink Salmon

Run and Escapement Summary: In the Southern District, the pink salmon SEGs for China Poot, Humpy, and Seldovia Creeks were not achieved. The Tutka Creek SEG was exceeded. Escapement for the remaining pink salmon index streams—Barabara Creek and the Port Graham River—were within their assigned SEG ranges.

In the Kamishak Bay District, pink salmon escapement was below the SEG range in the Bruin River, Brown’s Peak Creek, and Sunday Creek.

In the Outer District, pink salmon escapement was above the SEG range for Dogfish Bay Creeks, Windy Bay Creek Right, and Windy Bay Creek Left. Index systems within SEG ranges were Rocky River, Port Dick Creek, and Desire Lake Creek. Port Chatham Creeks, Island Creek, and South Nuka Creek were below SEG ranges.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 purse seine harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 5,770 pink salmon, less than the 10-year average harvest of 147,359 fish. The set gillnet harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 8,793 fish, less than the previous 10-year average harvest of 21,049 fish.

The Kamishak Bay District CCPF pink salmon harvest was confidential. The 10-year average for pink salmon harvest from this district is 46,880 fish.

The Outer District pink salmon harvest was 324,836 fish, which was lower than the 10-year average harvest of 1.2 million fish.

Chum Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: The chum salmon SEG was not met at the Port Graham River in the Southern District for the fourth consecutive year. Chum salmon escapement in the Outer District was above the SEG range for Rocky River and below for Island and Dogfish Lagoon Creeks. Escapement was within SEG ranges for Port Dick Creek. In the Kamishak District, chum salmon escapement was below the SEG range at the McNeil River, Bruin River, and Ursus Cove Creeks and above the minimum SEG at the Little Kamishak River. Big Kamishak River, Cottonwood Creek, and Iniskin River were all within SEG ranges.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 purse seine harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 308 chum salmon, which was lower than the 10-year average harvest of 1,248 fish. The set 14 gillnet harvest (including homepack) for the Southern District was 2,986 chum salmon, which was less than the 10-year average harvest of 4,277 fish.
The Kamishak Bay District CCPF chum salmon harvest was confidential. The 10-year average annual chum salmon harvest from this district is 10,171 fish.
The Outer District harvest was 48,970 chum salmon, which was lower than the 10-year average harvest of 55,604 fish.
Summary by Glenn Hollowell, Area Management Biologist, ADF&G, Homer.

 

 

UPPER COOK INLET AREA
The 2022 Upper Cook Inlet Area (UCI) sockeye salmon estimated total run of 5.2 million fish was 300,000 fish larger than the preseason forecast of 4.9 million fish. The commercial salmon fishery harvest of 1.4 million salmon was 44% less than the recent 10-year average harvest of 2.5 million fish. Harvest was composed of approximately 2,000 Chinook, 1.1 million sockeye, 103,000 coho, 101,000 pink, and 99,000 chum salmon.

Chinook Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: In UCI, there are 2 commercial fisheries where most Chinook salmon are harvested. These include the set gillnet fisheries in the Northern District and in the Upper Subdistrict of the Central District. Chinook salmon runs were expected to be below average across Southcentral Alaska for the 2022 season. As expected, the 2022 Chinook salmon run was below average and was even lower than the preseason forecasts. This led to both preseason and inseason conservation measures in all fisheries to reduce the harvest of Chinook salmon.

The 2022 preseason run forecast for Deshka River Chinook salmon of 9,332 fish suggested harvest should be limited to achieve the biological escapement goal (BEG) range of 9,000–18,000 fish.

The department issued preseason restrictions limiting Units 1–6 to catch-and-release angling only, with single unbaited hooks. The directed Chinook salmon fishery is normally 12 hours on Mondays, but because the Deshka River Chinook salmon sport fishery was restricted to catch-andrelease, commercial fishing time was reduced by 50% to 6 hours (EO 2S-01-22) in accordance with the Northern District King Salmon Management Plan (NDKSMP). Additionally, the area of the Northern District from the wood chip dock to the Susitna River was closed to commercial fishing in conjunction with the sport fishery closure of the Chuitna River. Subsequently, commercial salmon fishing in the Northern District was closed on June 20 (EO 2S-03-22) in congruence with closure of the Deshka River sport fisheries (EO 2-KS-2-32-22) due to poor Chinook salmon passage and inseason projections that indicated the SEG would not be achieved.

The final escapement estimate of Chinook salmon in the Deshka River was 5,436 fish, which did not achieve the SEG range of 9,000–18,000 fish. The Little Susitna River Chinook salmon SEG range of 2,100–4,300 fish was achieved in 2022 with the incomplete weir count of 2,288 Chinook salmon. Results of the aerial escapement goals for the various other Susitna drainage Chinook salmon systems are still preliminary and are pending data analysisto determine whether goals have been achieved.

Kasilof River and Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon are the primary Chinook salmon stocks harvested in the eastside set gillnet (ESSN) fishery. Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon were managed to meet the optimal escapement goal (OEG) range of 15,000–30,000 large Chinook salmon (>75cm mid eye to tail fork length). By regulation, if restrictions are implemented in the sport fishery to achieve the OEG, restrictive “paired” actions are also required in the ESSN fishery.

The total estimated passage at the river mile 14 sonar through August 19 was 13,425 large Chinook salmon. The department applies harvest, catch-and-release mortality estimates, and spawning downstream of the sonar estimates to generate a preliminary spawning escapement estimate. The 2022 preliminary spawning escapement estimate was 13,952 large fish with a total run estimate of 13,994 large fish. The midpoint of the run occurred on July 27, which is on the mean historical midpoint. The OEG range of 15,000–30,000 large fish was not achieved and the SEG range of 13,500–27,000 large fish was achieved in 2022. The SEG has been achieved in 3 of the last 6 years. The lower bound of the OEG goal has not been achieved since establishment in 2020. The 2022 preseason forecast was for a total run of approximately 16,000 large Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon. Based on low preseason forecasts, the 2022 late-run Chinook salmon sport fishery was restricted to catch-and-release only with 1 unbaited, single-hook, or artificial lure to begin the season and later closed on July 17 for the remainder of the season. Subsequently, the ESSN commercial fishery openings began restricted, and closed with the sport fishery for the season.

Of the 3 southern Kenai Peninsula Chinook salmon systems, the SEG was not achieved at 2 systems and not assessed in the third. The Anchor River preliminary escapement estimate was 3,147 fish (SEG range 3,800–7,600 fish) and Ninilchik River wild run count was 687 fish (SEG range 750–1,300 fish). The Deep Creek Chinook salmon run was not assessed due to lack of funding. All 3 sport fisheries were restricted preseason and subsequently closed.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 UCI commercial harvest of Chinook salmon was 2,278 fish, which was 58% less than the previous 10-year average of 5,461 fish. Of this total, the ESSN fishery harvested 341 Chinook salmon, or 15% of the total UCI commercial harvest. The Chinook salmon harvested in the ESSN fishery included an estimated 32 fish that were of large Kenai River laterun origin. The drift gillnet fishery harvested 167 Chinook salmon of all sizes and all stocks.

In the Northern District, the directed Chinook salmon set gillnet fishery was opened, but fishing time was reduced by 50% to 6 hours, 1 day per week. The estimated total Chinook salmon harvest in the Northern District in 2022 was 1,328 fish with approximately 1,313 fish harvested during the directed Chinook salmon fishery.

Sockeye Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: The 2022 UCI preseason total run forecast of 4.9 million sockeye salmon contained a harvest estimate (sport, personal use, and commercial) of 3.0 million fish, including a commercial fisheries harvest of 1.1 million fish. The 2022 preliminary total run estimate (harvest and escapement) of 5.2 million sockeye salmon was 289,000 fish greater, or 6% more than the preseason forecast. Sockeye salmon run abundance to the Kenai River was less than forecasted by 220,000 fish; the run abundance to the Kasilof River exceeded the forecast by 554,000 fish. The number of sockeye salmon returning to Fish Creek was 16,000 fish less than forecasted (incomplete count 58,351 fish escapement: 15,000–45,000 fish escapement goal range).

The Susitna River sockeye salmon run estimate was 36,000 more fish than forecasted. For all other systems combined (minor systems), inseason abundance was 136,000 fish less than forecasted.

A weak Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon run resulted in paired restrictive actions in the Kenai River sport fishery and the ESSN commercial fishery. For the ESSN fishery, this meant less fishing time and gear restrictions. The final passage estimated at the river mile 19 sonar of 1,567,750 sockeye salmon exceeded the Kenai River sockeye salmon middle tier inriver goal range (1,100,000–1,400,000 fish). Applying the recent 10-year average sport fish harvest upstream of the sonar (304,570 fish), the SEG range (750,000–1,300,000 fish) was probably achieved. The peak day of sockeye salmon passage in the Kenai River occurred on July 20 with a count of 189,420 fish. During the previous 10 years, the average date when 50% of the sonar passage occurred in the Kenai River was July 28. In 2022, the midpoint of total sockeye salmon passage occurred on July 23, which is 5 days earlier than the previous 10-year average but is the same date as the long-term average (1979–2021). Approximately 20% of the sockeye salmon run arrived in the Kenai River during the month of August.

The Kasilof River sockeye salmon sonar count of 971,604 fish was the largest on record and exceeded the Kasilof River BEG range of 140,000–320,000 fish and the OEG range of 140,000– 370,000 fish. The passage midpoint for Kasilof River sockeye salmon occurred on July 19, which was 3 days later than the average midpoint of July 16. Peak daily Kasilof River sockeye salmon passage of 125,628 fish occurred on July 20.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 total UCI commercial harvest of 1.1 million sockeye salmon was approximately 43% less than the 10-year average annual harvest of 1.9 million fish. The total 2022
sockeye salmon harvest in the ESSN fishery was 104,678 fish. From June 23 through July 20, the Kasilof Section was open on 7 different days, with approximately 81,591 sockeye salmon harvested, which was 75% less than the previous 10-year average of 332,490 fish. From July 8 through July 17, the Kenai and East Foreland Sections were open on 2 different days, with a total of 23,087 sockeye salmon harvested. This was 92% less than the previous 10-year average annual sockeye salmon harvest of 287,816 fish for those sections.

From June 20 through August 15, the drift gillnet fleet fished a total of 28 days as follows: 1 day in the regular Kasilof Section, 2 daysin the ExpandedCorridors, 12 daysin the Expanded Corridors and Anchor Point sections, 8 days in Drift Gillnet Area 1, and 5 days in the Central District.

Beginning on Monday, August 15, all Monday/Thursday regulatory drift gillnet fishing periods were restricted to Drift Gillnet Areas 3 and 4. The total UCI drift gillnet harvest was 893,743 sockeye salmon, which was 22% less than the previous 10-year average harvest of approximately 1.2 million fish. The peak day of harvest for the drift gillnet fleet occurred on Monday, July 18, of
67,131 sockeye salmon.

In 2022, approximately 32,672 sockeye salmon were harvested by set gillnetters in the Western Subdistrict. This was 5% less than the average annual harvest of approximately 34,404 fish during the previous 10 years.

Approximately 5,618 sockeye salmon were harvested in the Kustatan Subdistrict in 2022, of which 3,165 fish were harvested during the Big River fishery. The 2022 sockeye salmon harvest for the Kustatan Subdistrict was 25% larger than the recent 10-year average harvest of 4,475 fish. In 2022, approximately 37,718 sockeye salmon were harvested from the Kalgin Island Subdistrict, with 8,138 fish taken during the Big River sockeye salmon fishery. The average annual sockeye salmon harvest in the Kalgin Island Subdistrict during the previous 10 years was approximately 46,053 fish, with roughly 8,422 fish harvested during the early season Big River fishery.

In 2022, approximately 51,831 sockeye salmon were harvested in the Northern District. This harvest was 6% greater than the 10-year average annual harvest of 48,868 sockeye salmon. As in past years, restrictions to the Northern District salmon fishery that limited the number of nets allowed were implemented from July 20 to August 6, to conserve Susitna River sockeye salmon.

Coho Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: In UCI, there are 4 coho salmon systems with escapement goals.

Weirs are used to assess escapement on the Fish Creek, Little Susitna River, and Deshka River; and McRoberts Creek is assessed with foot surveys.

The Little Susitna weir was inundated by flood waters for the majority of the coho salmon season. Projected escapement was within the SEG range going into a flood that overtopped the weir at the historical quarter point of the run (August 6) and then lasted for one month.

Even though the count was lost due to flooding, the SEG range of 9,200–17,700 fish probably would have been attained.

A weir count of 3,162 fish is considered an incomplete and minimum count.

Due to budget reductions and impending flood waters, the Deshka weir was pulled August 8. Through this date 3,168 coho salmon were counted, which is considered an incomplete and minimum count. The weir at Fish Creek was pulled at the end of July. The coho salmon run was not counted this season due to budget constraints. The SEG range for Jim Creek of 250–700 coho salmon is assessed postseason by a foot survey of McRoberts Creek, a small spawning tributary within the Jim Creek system. The survey resulted in 1,899 coho salmon, which exceeds the SEG.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 commercial harvest estimate of 102,630 coho salmon in UCI was 44% less than the previous 10-year average of 185,532 fish. The 2022 drift gillnet harvest of 51,306 coho salmon was 52% less than the 10-year average of 107,614 fish. The Northern District set gillnet fishery harvested 36,895 coho salmon, which was 16% less than the recent 10-year average of 43,992 fish.

Pink Salmon
Harvest Summary: Pink salmon runs in UCI are even-year dominant, with odd-year average harvests typically less than one-sixth of even-year harvests. The 2022 UCI commercial pink salmon harvest was estimated to be 100,998 fish, which was 72% lower than the average annual harvest of 363,813 fish from the previous 10 years of even-year harvests.

Chum Salmon
Run and Escapement Summary: An aerial survey of Chinitna River/Clearwater Creek was conducted on August 3. This survey produced an estimate of approximately 4,681 chum salmon within these streams, which was within the SEG range of 3,500–8,000 fish. Therefore, Chinitna Bay was opened to set and drift gillnetting on Tuesdays and Fridays. Regularly scheduled Monday and Thursday drift gillnet fishing periods for Drift Gillnet Areas 3 and 4 began August 15.

Harvest Summary: The 2022 harvest of 99,294 chum salmon was 34% lower than the 10-year average annual harvest of 151,247 fish.