In 2020, a run of approximately 4.3 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to the the Upper Cook Inlet with a commercial harvest of 1.7 million. The forecast commercial harvest in 2020 is 1.4 million less than the 20-year average annual harvest, according to the Department of Fish and Game.
The run forecast for the Kenai River, the dominant sockeye system in the drainage, is approximately 2.2 million sockeye salmon. That mark is 1.4 million (38%) less than the 20-year average run of 3.6 million. A fry model based upon the age-0 fry rearing in Kenai and Skilak lakes in 2016 (26.1 million against a 19.3 million 20-year average) and the average weight of age-0 fall fry rearing in Skilak Lake (0.8 grams against a 1.0 grams 20-year average) predicts a return of 1.4 million age-1.3 salmon in 2020. A sibling model from return of age-1.2 salmon in 2019 (248,000 against a 393,000 20-year average) also predicted a return of 1.4 million age-1.3 fish.
The run in 2019 also fell fewer than its forecast of about 6 million fish. In addition, the early run of king salmon in the Kenai River has been declining for a decade.
The ADF&G released the numbers in advance of the Upper Cook Inlet Board of Fisheries meeting on February 7 in Anchorage. Sport Fish Cook Inlet Coordinator Matt Miller: “The ADF&G understands that anglers, guides, and local businesses are better served by preseason and timely management decisions. However, it is prudent to hold off making any preseason management decisions prior to the Board of Fisheries meeting. The board will be considering actions that could impact these fisheries.”
