In 2024, a run of approximately 5.72 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to Upper Cook Inlet with an estimated 3.70 million available for harvest (commercial, sport, personal use, and subsistence).
That UCI number is a roughly 22% decrease from the total sockeye salmon run of 6.5 million fish in 2023. Last year was a big increase–27%–from the preseason forecast of 5.1 million fish. The commercial salmon fishery harvest of 1.9 million salmon in 2023 was 41% less than the recent 20-year average annual harvest of 3.1 million fish
The 2024 sockeye salmon forecast in the Kenai River is approximately 3.38 million fish. That’s about 500,000 (14%) less fish than the historical (1986-2023) average run of 3.88 million fish but 215,000 (6%) fish more than the recent 10-year (2014-2023) average run of 3.17 million.
The Kasilof River sockeye salmon run forecast is approximately 1.12 million fish. The 2024 forecast is 201,000 fish (20%) greater than the historical (1986-2023) average run of 0.91 million fish and 174,000 fish (17%) greater than the recent 10-year (2014-2023) average run.
Approximately 303,400 and 86,690 sockeye salmon are forecast to return to the Susitna River and Fish Creek, respectively, in 2024. The 2024 Susina River sockeye salmon forecast is 127,400 fish (35%) below the historical (2002-2023) average run and 71,600 fish (21%) below the recent 10-year (2014-2023) average run. The 2024 Fish Creek sockeye salmon forecast is 25,450 fish (26%) below the historical average but the same as the recent 10-year average run size.
