The Alaska Department of Fish and Game released their 2022 Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon forecast. A run of approximately 4.97 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to UCI with an estimate of 2.97 million available for harvest (commercial, sport, personal use, subsistence). There is an 80% probability that the 2022 UCI forecast range falls between 3.30 million and 10.11 million fish, which is a weak projected forecast based on historical total run estimates from 1986 to present. The UCI preseason forecast has overestimated the total run by about 5% over the past years with a range of -45% to 27%.
The Kenai River forecast of 2.90 million sockeye salmon is 794,000 less (21%) than the 20-year average run of 3.70 million, but 19,000 less than the 5-year average of 2.92 million. The Kasilof River sockeye salmon run forecast is approximately 941,000 fish. The 2022 forecast is 51,000 less (5%) than the 20-year average but is 168,000 greater (22%) than the 5-year average. The Susitna River sockeye salmon run forecast is 310,000 fish, which is 55,000 fish less (15%) than the 10-year average of 365,000. The Fish Creek sockeye salmon run forecast for 2022 is 89,000 fish. This forecast is approximately 3,000 fish greater (3%) than the 20-year average run of 86,000.
Last year’s sockeye run of 5.95 million was 1.58 million greater (36%) than the preseason forecast of 4.37 million fish. In 2021, the estimated total run was 3.83 million to the Kenai River; 861,000 to the Kasilof River; 424,000 to the Susitna River; and 122,000 to Fish Creek. The 2021 run forecast was 2.33 million to the Kenai River; 881,000 to the Kasilof River; 436,000 to the Susitna River; and 92,000 to Fish Creek. In 2021, the commercial harvest of 1.41 million sockeye salmon in UCI was 0.23 million less (14%) than the preseason forecast of 1.64 million.
Below is the entire 2022 Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon forecast:
1355244301
