Commercial fisher people of the Kenai Peninsula could see increased hours during 2016 based on the positive forecast released by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game Monday, November 16.
Area Management Biologist Pat Shields says it depends on if the upcoming king salmon forecast reflects the positive trend seen in the sockeye numbers predictions.
Shields: “The Kenai forecast is up from the last couple of years, it’s actually about 4.7 million fish we expect to come back to the Kenai, and about somewhere between 800,000 to 900,000 fish to the Kasilof. So that’s more fish in 2016 to the Kenai and less to the Kasilof.”
Those findings were based on four models evaluated by researchers which compared the different ages and classes of sockeye and the past years’ trends.
Shields says although the forecast calls for “less” sockeye returning to the Kasilof River, those numbers range into average run numbers but appear lower because of the above average runs over the last few years.
The Kenai River sockeye forecast could put the department’s commercial fishing management plan into the upper tier.
Shields: “We divide the runs into the Kenai River into three tiers and then there are management applications to each of those tiers and actions that we take. We’re forecasting a run that would put us into the upper tier next year and if that comes to fruition, the number of hours that the setnet fishery can fish, if the kings are around, are more hours than they’ve had over the last few years.”
The ADF&G is scheduled to release the 2016 Upper Cook Inlet king salmon forecast around January 2016.