The Climate Prediction Center issued a report saying that El Nino may create a dry summer for most of Alaska.
According to the National Weather Service, El Nino is caused by a “significant increase in water temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is the area between the dateline and Ecuador,”.
Regional Climate Services Manager Rick Thoman explained that sea surface temperatures have risen already this year.
Thoman: “They’re already warming and we expect them to get up to that significantly above normal level this summer. And why is that important? Because that influences where thunder storms form in the Equatorial Pacific and then those big giant equatorial tropical thunder storms push lots of moisture and then that gets dispersed to the higher latitudes that way, so that in a nutshell is why what happens over the tropical Pacific can matter to Alaska.”
He said that based on the similar weather trends in 13 Alaskan summers of El Nino over the past 60 years, this summer is shaping up to be very dry one.
Thoman: “What this would suggest as we move into the heart of the summer with this tendency to be dry over this large area of Alaska, that kind of sets the stage for bigger fire seasons. What’s interesting is that there isn’t really any significant trends for temperatures, certainly doesn’t suggest warm and dry.”