The late-run Kenai Kings reached their lower escapement goal at the end of July but the Alaska Department of Fish and Game estimates the run will not reach the mid-way goal of 22,500.
190 kings passed the sonar at River Mile-14on Tuesday and Sportfishing Biologist Robert Begich said 171 kings passed on Wednesday.
Begich: “The end of season escapement projection is 22,049 fish.”
Begich said the 2015 Kenai River and Cook Inlet king runs have shown that the 2010 brood year survived well.
Based on in-season fish length data collected, 5-year-old kings comprised most of the Kenai River run.
Begich: “Given that brood year survived well, hopefully next year we’ll have a lot of four-ocean-fish that the Kenai run may be primarily composed of, or total aged six year fish. That might indicate a better run next year but we’re still not sure because the runs are comprised of multiple brood years.”
Forecasting runs based on the ages of fish is unreliable. For example, Begich said the number of 6-year-old fish from the 2009 brood increased this year but did not make up as much of the run as expected.
More data will be logged after the department finalizes it’s scales samples from this season.
The Kenai River mile 14 sonar will shut down for the season if today’s count is only 1% for the third day in a row.