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Kenai River In-Season Assessment Shows Higher Than Expected Salmon Numbers

Nick Sorrell

Kenai River dipnetters received some positive news on Thursday when early-run sockeye salmon numbers came in higher than expected. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game released in-season data, and for the second year in a row, the sockeye numbers have exceeded preseason projections.

 

According to the mid-season assessment, ADF&G estimates that the total Upper Cook Inlet (UCI) sockeye salmon run through July 22 was around 4 million fish. That significantly surpasses the preseason estimate, which the department projected to be just over 2 million by this time.

 

Currently, the department projects the total Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon to be 3.51 million fish.

 

The preseason forecast for late-run sockeye salmon return was 3.38 million fish. With this in-season assessment, management of the Upper Subdistrict Central District drift gillnet commercial fisheries will remain in the middle tier and will continue to be managed for run strengths between 2.3 million and 4.6 million Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon.

 

Based on this projected run strength, the Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon inriver goal range is 1.1 to 1.4 million fish.

 

In May, ADF&G projected a cumulative total of 5.72 million early and late-run sockeye salmon to return to Upper Cook Inlet with an estimate of 3.70 million available for harvest (commercial, sport, personal use, and subsistence).

 

These higher-than-expected projections continue a trend from last year when preseason projections for salmon totals in the Kenai River were exceeded by nearly 35%. However, these come after after a decade in which ADF&G over projected sockeye numbers.

 

The same review released by ADF&G in May showed that the Kenai River forecast had been overestimated by an average of 0.8% over the past 10 years, with a range of -42% to 59%. For sockeye salmon runs of 2.3–4.6 million fish, the Kenai River Late-Run Sockeye Salmon Management Plan (KRLSSMP) stipulates that ADF&G manage to the SEG range of 750,000–1,300,000 and achieve an in-river goal of 1.1 to 1.4 million fish.

 

Dipnetting on the Kenai River closes at 11:59 p.m. on July 31.

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