Direct flights to Seattle from Kenai could be coming to the Kenai Municipal Airport. A recent study presented to the Kenai City Council on June 19 shows that the local airport could not only support larger airlines like Alaska Airlines or Delta offering a non-stop flight from Kenai to Seattle but that the offering would be a profitable endeavor.
The study, presented by Jack Penning, a representative of Volaire Aviation Consulting, offered a very “exciting” opportunity for the city of Kenai. “I really am excited to present to you really forward-looking, optimistic report based on what we found about this community.”
According to Penning’s report, the study looked at a sample of 1,757 tickets booked for travel in the year-end third quarter 2023 in the eight zip codes on the Kenai Peninsula. These sample tickets were combined with year-end third quarter 2023 Department of Transportation data to determine the number of passengers traveling to and from the Kenai. The number of tickets purchased over the one-year period of the survey translates to a demand of 447.8 passengers per day each way generated in study area.
Volaire’s study showed that the vast majority of those flying to Anchorage from Kenai are flying beyond Alaska’s largest city. “95% of your passengers that fly out of this airport are buying two tickets. When they leave or come back, they’re buying 1 ticket to Anchorage and another ticket from Anchorage to wherever they’re going,” said Penning.
Travelers from the Kenai Municipal Airport overwhelmingly complete their trips with tickets from major airlines. The study showed that Delta, Alaska, United, and American Airlines are “capturing” approximately 86% of the air traffic out of Kenai. Delta and Alaska Airlines dominate that market share, capturing nearly 60%.
This means that direct flights from Kenai to Seattle are not only viable but would significantly reduce travel expenses for anyone leaving the state with a trip beginning on the peninsula. In fact, Penning says the high cost of current airfare out of Kenai actually has an inverse effect on traffic by disincentivizing travel at all.
“Note, those who fly out of Kenai pay $335 one way on average, and the vast majority of those that is only for the segment to Anchorage,” said Penning. “That means there’s a significant number of passengers who are paying both the Kenai fare and the Anchorage fare together. That’s $750 one way, $1500 round trip. It’s a very, very expensive air service market. What happens in markets with fares that high is that it suppresses the traffic.”
The time frame to implement these new routes could take a significant amount of time to materialize, but Penning believes larger airlines could contribute to the health of travel off the peninsula. “Your market is even better than it looked at first glance, and we think that service to Seattle coexist with our current service or even enhanced service to Anchorage.”
