The Kenai Peninsula Borough is experiencing an upward trend in economic growth compared to the broader statewide trends, especially since 2020. Population change, job growth, housing costs, and annual earnings per job are the key economic indicators that are on an upward trajectory, proving to be a good sign for the economy.
The population in the Kenai Peninsula Borough has increased by 4.3% from 2020 to 2024, with most being part of the older population and gaining children until 2024. Comparatively, the Anchorage and Matsu areas’ populations increased by 2.2%, nearly half. Andy Winks, an economist and research analyst, said nearly 1 in 10 people are new each year.
This population growth is complemented by the 6.8% increase in job growth on the Kenai Peninsula from 2019 to 2023, significantly higher than the Anchorage and Matsu areas’ increase of 0.5% during this time. The Kenai Peninsula has seen an upward trend in employment since 2020, and is beating the statewide average for wages and salaries. Annual earnings per job in 2023 were $59,196. The upward employment trend is partly attributed to the borough’s tourism employment, especially during the pandemic. The borough’s tourism remained at a stable level due to the in state tourism from the interior and Mat-Su areas.
Oil and gas employment are predicted to be the biggest, followed by construction, for the housing needs. Andy Winks says that needing more housing because people want to live here is a good sign for the economy, however, it is difficult to meet the demand. In 2024, the median housing cost for the Kenai Peninsula Borough is $429,351, making it more affordable compared to other parts of Alaska, including Anchorage and Mat-Su areas.
The KPB’s economic outlook is optimistic, however, growing pains are to be expected. Tourism remains an area for cautious optimism. Seafood is an area of concern and faces big risks, but the borough is hopeful about potential improvements. The forecast for healthcare is up, but capacity might be a limitation. The KPB’s strategic investments may help navigate these challenges and sustain its economic momentum.
The Kenai Peninsula Economic Development District (KPEDD) says there may be potential for big infrastructure projects in the future, supporting the borough’s economic resilience. They remain very optimistic about the oil, gas, and construction industries to further the economic development.