The Alaska Department of Fish and Game reports that a run of 4.97 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to Upper Cook Inlet with an estimate of 2.97 million available for harvest. The commercial fishery harvest is estimated to be approximately 1.4 million sockeye salmon, which is 1.3 million fish less than the 20-year average annual commercial sockeye salmon harvest of 2.7 million fish.
The sockeye salmon total run forecast for the Kenai River is approximately 2.90 million fish. The Kenai run forecast is weak based on historical total run estimates from 1986 to present. The 2022 sockeye salmon forecast is 794,000 less (21%) than the 20-year average run of 3.70 million, and similar to the 5-year average of 2.92 million. In 2022, the predominant age classes are projected to be age-1.2 (12%) and age-1.3 (71%). The preseason forecast for Kenai River sockeye salmon has underestimated the total run by an average of 4% over the past 5 years with a range of -50% to 39%.
The Kasilof River sockeye salmon run forecast is approximately 941,000 fish which is 51,000 less (5%) than the 20-year average but is 168,000 greater (22%) than the 5-year average. The Kasilof preseason forecast has overestimated the total run by an average of 10% over the past 5 years with a range of -31% to 10%. The predominant age classes in the 2022 run forecast are age1.2 (33%), age-1.3 (43%), and age-2.2 (21%).
In addition, the Exclusive Economic Zone within UCI will be closed to all commercial salmon fishing in 2022.
Entire outlook below:
2022outlook
